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USDA corn and soybean projections for 2026/2027 – June 2026

The latest update confirms a contraction in the global corn market for the 2026/27 crop year: the decrease in harvests in the United States and Argentina far outweighs the gains in Brazil and China, which is also putting downward pressure on exports and global stocks. The most recent projections for soybeans, however, remain optimistic, driven by Brazil and the United States, with global production expected to reach a new all-time high despite a slight reduction in ending stocks.

Harvest projections for the world’s leading corn and soybean producers—2026/27 crop year versus 2025/26 crop year. Last updated June 11, 2026. Prepared by 333 Latin America using data from FAS–USDA.

These are the highlights from the USDA’s grain and oilseed estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year, released on June 11, 2026:

Corn

Production

Global corn production for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to be around 1,300.4 million metric tons (Mt), representing a 2.0% decline from the 2025/26 marketing year, last estimated at 1,326.7 Mt.
In the United States, production is expected to reach 406.3 Mt, a 6.0% decline from the previous crop year (432.3 Mt). China’s harvest is projected to increase by 1.9% to 307.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 1.2% increase to 57.5 Mt, and Ukraine, with 30.0 Mt, is forecast to see a 2.9% decline from the 30.9 Mt in the previous season.
Among South American crops, Brazil is expected to reach 139.0 Mt, a 0.7% increase compared to the 2025/26 season (138.0 Mt), while Argentina’s harvest is projected to be around 55.0 Mt, 9.8% below the previous season (61.0 Mt).

Exports

Global corn exports are expected to decline by 4.3% this marketing year, reaching 207.6 Mt.
The United States is expected to lead in exports with 80.0 Mt, representing a 5.3% decline from the previous marketing year (84.5 Mt), followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 44.0, 38.0, and 23.0 Mt, respectively.

Imports

Globally, corn imports are expected to rise from 197.6 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 199.6 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 1.0% increase.
Mexico is expected to be the largest importer of corn, with 27.7 Mt, representing a 2.6% increase over the previous crop year (27.0 Mt).
The European Union is projected to reach 19.5 Mt, a 5.4% increase compared to the 2025/26 season (18.5 Mt), while Japan is expected to remain unchanged at 15.5 Mt. Vietnam is projected to see a 12.6% increase compared to the previous season (13.5 Mt), reaching 15.2 Mt.
Colombia is expected to increase its corn imports by 2.4%, reaching 8.6 Mt in this new season.

Stocks

Global ending stocks are expected to decline by 7.3%, reaching 281.2 Mt. In the United States, stocks are expected to fall by 8.6%, while China and Brazil are projected to see declines of 6.7% and 9.8%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

Global soybean production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to reach a new high of 441.3 Mt, representing a 2.8% increase over the previous crop year (429.2 Mt).
Estimates for South American harvests point to a 3.3% increase in Brazil, which is expected to reach 186.0 Mt, while production in Argentina is expected to remain at 50.0 Mt, unchanged from the previous season.
Paraguay is expected to reduce its production by 8.3% compared to the 2025/26 crop year (12.1 Mt), bringing it down to 11.1 Mt.
In the United States, the harvest is estimated at 120.7 Mt, which would represent a 4.1% increase over the previous season (116.0 Mt).

Exports

Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 1.3% this marketing year, reaching 189.2 Mt.
Exports are expected to be led by Brazil with 117.5 Mt, up 2.2% from the 2025/26 season (115.0 Mt), while the United States is projected to reach 44.4 Mt, representing a 7.9% increase over the previous season (41.1 Mt).
Exports from Argentina are projected to total 6.2 Mt, a 31.1% decrease from the previous season (9.0 Mt).

Imports

Global soybean imports are expected to rise from 185.0 Mt in the 2025/26 marketing year to 188.0 Mt in this new marketing year, representing a 1.6% increase.
China is expected to import 114.0 Mt, up 1.8% from the previous marketing year (112.0 Mt), while the European Union is projected to import 13.2 Mt, down 4.3% from the previous marketing year (13.8 Mt).
Mexico's imports are expected to total 6.8 Mt this season, representing a 0.7% increase over the previous season (6.7 Mt).

Stocks

Global ending stocks of soybeans are expected to decline slightly to 124.9 Mt, 0.5% below the previous season (125.5 Mt). In the United States, stocks are expected to decline by 8.7%, while China and Brazil are projected to see declines of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Argentina would be the exception, with a 1.7% increase in its ending stocks.

June 25, 2025/ 333 Latin America with data from USDA.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/